Americans saw a chance to save a few dollars on their monthly mortgage payments and took it, pushing refinance applications up 40% versus a year ago.

“Rates typically move higher if job openings are higher than expected, all else equal,” wrote Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily, adding that this data-driven volatility is nothing compared with what could be seen on Thursday following the government’s release of the monthly employment report.

Most economists predict the Fed will start lowering rates in September. If President Trump eases some of his aggressive tariff measures or if the labor market continues to deteriorate, the Fed might cut interest rates earlier,