NASA has revised the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth on December 22, 2032, reducing it to 0.28%. There are indications it may collide with the Moon instead.

YR4 continues to captivate global attention as NASA tracks its path, lowering the risk of Earth impact to 0.28%, but concerns remain, with a new possibility of a Moon collision.

Even in the increasingly unlikely event of an impact from YR4, Oregon and the Pacific Northwest appear to be safe from impact. Computer models showed areas of South America, Africa and southeast Asia would have the highest risk in the event of an impact, based on what astronomers know about the asteroid’s orbit.

A NASA asteroid tracker explains how scientists are calculating the risk to Earth from asteroid 2024 YR4. Archaeologists are piecing together the world’s oldest known rune stone. It could shed light on the origins of early written Germanic languages and who inscribed it.

The asteroid — which was initially discovered in December 2024 — is large enough to destroy a whole city, according to scientists

An asteroid discovered in December and named YR4 has a small chance of hitting Earth in 2032. But scientists keep changing the odds. We asked an expert to break it down for us.